Hey there, fellow traders! Today, I’m excited to share one of my all-time favorite projects—a Forex Expert Advisor (EA) designed for the MetaTrader 5 platform that harnesses the power of probability theory. This nifty tool helps you gauge the chances of price movements in your favorite financial instruments.
This EA dives into the price history of a selected asset, analyzing a default of 10,000 bars. It tracks how often the price closes above or below the opening price by a set number of pips (400 pips by default) across a cluster of bars (50 bars by default). With this data, it calculates the probabilities of price increases or decreases and displays these insights right onto your chart!
But that’s not all—this EA can actually execute trades based on its probability calculations. If it determines that the likelihood of a price rise is greater than 51%, it’ll open a buy position. Conversely, if it sees a fall probability exceeding 51%, it’ll go ahead and sell.
When it comes to trading positions, you have some flexibility. You can either set a fixed lot size or let the EA calculate it based on your specified risk and your current account balance. Plus, if you’ve set Stop Loss and Take Profit values, the EA will automatically adjust these levels when it opens a position.
To get started, make sure to set the following flag to True:
input bool EnableCheckBars = true;
Just a heads-up, though—this EA isn't designed to generate profits on its own. The idea of counting movements, waves, and predicting Stop Loss or Take Profit levels with simple algorithms is a bit of a long shot. The market is a complex beast, and relying solely on this kind of analysis can be a gamble.
So, there you have it! If you're looking to leverage probability theory in your trading strategy, this EA could be a valuable addition to your toolkit. Happy trading!
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